Sunday, October 4, 2009

NCAA Football: Who Still Matters

Now that we're five weeks into the 2009 football season, it's time to start highlighting who can actually play football, who has been pretending to play football, and who is still living off their name as a traditional football team. Without further ado, here's the current coaches poll:

1. Florida (54)
2. Texas (1)
3. Alabama (5)
4. LSU
5. Virginia Tech
6. Boise State
7. USC
8. Cincinnati
9. Ohio State
10. TCU
11. Miami
12. Iowa
13. Oregon
14. Penn State
15. Oklahoma State
16. Kansas
17. Auburn
18. BYU
19. Oklahoma
20. Ole Miss
21. Nebraska
22. Georgia Tech
23. South Florida
24. Missouri
25. South Carolina

Others: Wisconsin, Houston, Georgia, Stanford, Utah, Michigan, Boston College, Notre Dame, Pitt, Arizona, West Virginia

By Conference:
6 - SEC: Florida (1), Alabama (3), LSU (4), Auburn (17), Ole Miss (20), South Carolina (25)
6 - Big 12: Texas (2), Oklahoma State (15), Kansas (16), Oklahoma (19), Nebraska (21), Missouri (24)
3 - ACC: Virginia Tech (5), Miami (11), Georgia Tech (22)
3 - Big Ten: Ohio State (9), Iowa (12), Penn St (14)
2 - Pac 10: USC (7), Oregon (13)
2 - Big East: Cincinnati (8), South Florida (23)
2 - Mountain West: TCU (10), BYU (18)
1 - WAC: Boise St (6)

Contenders - Florida, Texas, Alabama, USC

Florida - Next week's showdown in Baton Rouge will be Tim Tebow's chance to move up a few notches in College Football's All-Time Greatest list. You are fresh off a concussion, surrounded by 90,000 people who want to see you die on national television, and have done nothing over the last 2 weeks but watch re-runs of yourself getting leveled by a Kentucky defensive end. Your undefeated season, your rivalry bragging rights, and your legacy all hang in the balance. Pressure? What pressure?

Texas - Ok, so you haven't played anyone yet. The good news is: the only loss you've had in the last two years came on the last play against un-signed NFL WR Michael Crabtree; and you won the re-match (like that took much effort). You had last weekend off; you pretty much have this weekend off (Colorado); and face a showdown against not-completely-rehabilitated-yet Sam Bradford 2 weeks from now. While the Big 12 is supposed to be great, Texas sure has an easy run ahead of 'em.

Alabama - The only loss you've had in the last two years came against Florida in the SEC Championship game. You dominated a strong Virginia Tech squad on opening night; coasted for the last month; and now enter the meat of your SEC schedule. If you can survive at Ole Miss this weekend, you get to face LSU at home before an epic Iron Bowl matchup against Auburn on 11/27. The SEC West is rediculous.

USC - It seems like every year you have a WTF loss that motivates you to destroy the rest of the Pac 10. Two years ago it was Stanford; last year it was Oregon State; and this year you had Washington. Now you've hosted Washington State as a welcome-back scrimmage for the injured Matt Barkley; and pummelled over-rated Cal in what was supposed to be a close game. If you can survive back-to-back-to-back games against Notre Dame (haha), Oregon State (grudge game at home), and Oregon (mystery team of the year, next to Florida State).

Still Need to Prove It - Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ohio St

Virginia Tech - I still have no idea what to make of them. Yea, they lost a close game to Alabama to start the season, buy yet it was still the first game of the season. Alabama could have been rusty; VT could have played one heck of a game; or they're a legitimate squad. They destroyed Miami (3-1 against 4 ranked opponents to start off the season), but the conditions were awful (it looked like a monsoon) and the Hurricanes didn't show up. Their other big win? Nebraska (3-1, whose victories came against Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette) by 1 point. Nebraska is ranked, but I'll discuss them in a moment.

Cincinnati - They went 11-2 last year, won the Big East, went to the Orange Bowl, returned their star QB, and still weren't in the preseason Top 25. In fact, no Big East team was ranked to begin the season, and the Bearcats owe their current #8 ranking to all the other teams ahead of them who decided to lose over the last 5 weeks. Cincinnati hasn't really played anybody, unless you think their opponents' 8-15 combined record is something to brag about. Their rise up the rankings has been linear - they've moved up 3-4 spots each week - and seem to be moving up by sheer default. They may never really face a true quality opponent after South Florida (who they get a bye week to prepare for), allowing them to cruise into a BCS Bowl without any serious challenges. Until they either destroy South Florida or win in January, they will not crack my top 10.

Ohio State - They're Ohio State. Win a bowl game and quit playing high-schools in the Midwest. Then I'll half-way take them seriously.

Underrated Contenders - Miami, Oregon, Auburn, and South Florida

Miami - Wow, what a start. You've already faced the bulk of your ACC schedule and upset Oklahoma. Your last 3 tests are all away games: Wake Forest (over-rated), UNC (horrible, but who knows. Miami always struggles with UNC), and South Florida. If the U can make it through the rest of the season with 1 loss, they will have a date with a weak Atlantic Division foe in the ACC Championship Game en route to the BCS National Championship Game. Also, if Florida loses between now and December, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford may very well welcome Jacory Harris as the 3rd straight sophomore QB to with the Heisman Trophy.

Oregon - Their only loss came in the first week against a top-5 Boise State team; they host USC at home in 3 weeks in the "Pac-10 championship game"; and have 2 minor road challenges (Washington and Stanford) from a trip to the Rose Bowl. Also, if they only lose one of those three games, we may be seeing Oregon enter the BCS as an at-large bid to take on Boise State or TCU. Roll that up and smoke it, LeGarrette Blount.

Auburn - Offense? Where did that come from? Is this the same Auburn who went 5-7 last year, with one of those victories being 3-2 over Mississippi State? After 5 games, they've already matched last year's win total; and are on pace to have a 3,000-yd passer, two 1,000-yd rushers, and 40 points per game. After scoring more points at Tennessee than Florida did against Tennessee at the Swamp, Auburn has entered the national spotlight. Unfortunatley, that's where the good news ends. The bad news: Auburn plays in the SEC West, which, as a 6-team division, is easily the toughest conference in college football. The end of Auburn's schedule would make Miami's first 4 games look like a cake walk. In 34 days, they play LSU (away), Ole Miss, Georgia (away), and Alabama.

South Florida - So how do you respond to losing your starting QB for the rest of the season? Easy, you let your backup throw for 200 yds/gm and rush for 80 yds/gm while traveling to Florida State and Syracuse and beating them both ... convincingly. On the 15th, they host Cincinnati in a sure-to-be battle of undefeateds for the fast-track to the Big East Championship. Unlike Cincinnati, South Florida has already proven themselves. While they have a more difficult road to the Orange Bowl (@Pitt, @Rutgers, @UConn ... plus Miami at home), I wouldn't count out South Florida yet.

Ranked Solely on Reputation - Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Ole Miss, The Big Ten

Oklahoma State - They looked really great against Georgia ... until we found out Georgia was horrible. They looked really bad against Houston ... until we found out Houston was horrible, too (UTEP put up 58 points on Houston last week. 2-and-3 UTEP. Ouch.).

Nebraksa - The only thing keeping Nebraska from an undefeated record is a university that actually plays football. Once Nebraska played a real-life football team, they couldn't handle the pressure; and they lost by 1 point.

Ole Miss - Syracuse, led by Duke point guard Greg Paulus, looked better than Ole Miss on 9/24. That's the night Ole Miss lost the most boring, torcherous game of the year (next to NC State/South Carolina on opening night). I mean that game was painful. After that, I dropped Ole Miss out of my Top 25 and put them just ahead of Syracuse (go to hell, Greg Paulus). Unless they beat Alabama this weekend, I wouldn't vote Ole Miss for dogcatcher.

The Big Ten - Listed below are the non-conference opponents for each Big Ten school. The majority of these games are played in-succession toward the beginning of the season; and, as you will soon tell, not many of these game pose much of a challenge to any school from a BCS conference. What does this mean? It means that most Big Ten schools have an extra month of scrimmages before starting conference play; and, with most of these schools going 4-0 out of conference, each Big Ten team only needs to win 2 conference games to become bowl eligible. Just think about it: what if you went 2-6 in your conference, but went to a bowl game? While I admit that many BCS conferences intentionally schedule weaker non-conference teams to play in the regular season, most of those BCS schools do so in order to provide a break from the harsh conditions and brutal competition from their inter-conference opponents. These schools also take the time out to schedule a QUALITY non-conference opponent for the very purpose of boosting their strength-of-schedule. While the Big Ten plays several schools from BCS Conferences (14 total), the vast majority of these opponents come from the bottom rungs of their corresponding conference. Example? Sure! Syracuse, led by Duke point guard Greg Paulus. Syracuse sucks so bad that they begged a Caucasian point guard to be their starting QB knowing full well that he hadn't touched a football in 4 years. What's funnier? Syracuse plays Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern (and beat Northwestern, LOL); and Syracuse will be Penn State and Northwestern's only opponent from a BCS Conference outside the Big Ten.

Moral of the (Big Ten) story: Schedule good teams; beat good teams (especially in January); and until that happens, stop complaining about how you're not getting respect.

Navy
USC
Toledo
New Mexico State

Northern Illinois
Fresno State
Wofford
Hawaii

Northern Iowa
Iowa State
Arizona
Arkansas State

Western Michigan
Notre Dame
Eastern Michigan
Delaware State

Akron
Syracuse
Temple
Eastern Illinois

Syracuse
Air Force
California
South Dakota State

Towson
Eastern Michigan
Syracuse
Miami (OH)

Montana State
Central Michigan
Notre Dame
Western Michigan

Toledo
Oregon
Northern Illinois
Notre Dame

Eastern Kentucky
Western Michigan
Akron
Virginia

Missouri
Illinois State
Cincinnati
Fresno State

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