What’s the best way to rank college football teams?
It has been assumed and accepted for some time now that the AP and USA Today Coaches’ polls are the gold standard for college football rankings. Regardless of your opinion on playoff vs. BCS, (I’m pro- playoff myself), each system no doubt requires some sort of rankings to determine the seeding. So which poll really is the best? Is there a best way to objectively rank something that is so subjective, as college football cannot ever be a round robin format? There are now alternative methods of ranking teams around the web, and I’ll take a look at a few of them.
Mumme Poll (http://mummepoll.3sib.com/index.php)
The brainchild of two different college football blogs, the Mumme Poll is named after Hal Mumme. Mumme is well known for multiple reasons: (a) former Kentucky Wildcats coach responsible for Tim Couch; (b) top of the coaching tree consisting of Mike Leach, Tony Franklin, Sonny Dykes, Chris Hatcher; (c) abusing his privilege to vote in the coaches’ poll by voting Hawaii #1 in the final coaches’ poll in 2007. Thus, the Mumme Poll.
How is it different from other polls? Glad you asked:
1. The first official ballots aren’t cast until after the games of week 6
2. Teams aren’t ranked in order, the pollsters merely select their top 12 teams and teams are ranked based on the number of times the team appears on ballots
3. A pollster suspected of bucking the system with outrageous rankings (Mumme) will be tossed from the voting
Is it reliable/ valid?
There is limited evidence so far, with 2008 being the inaugural poll. However, the final 2008 poll had Florida #1, so take that for what you will. After week 5 of the 2009 season, the top 5 in the Mumme Poll:
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. LSU
5. Virginia Tech
Which is very similar to the AP and coaches polls, except for Alabama at the top and Texas at #3. Based on the ballot style and the comparisons to current and past polls, the Mumme Poll looks to be reliable on a week to week basis and at the end of the season, without the tradition of the mainstream polls of keeping teams at its current ranking unless they lose.
Summary
Advantages
o Pollsters mostly fans, who watch many games each weekend
o Over 300 voters currently (statistically, a sufficient sample size for a good study is > 30)
o Each pollster votes on top 5, then next 7 (top 12 total), in no particular order
o Rankings based on presence in top 12 or not (binaryà less room for gray areas)
o Subjective rankings (can weed out smaller, undefeated teams)
o Fluid (#1 not stuck there until they lose)
Disadvantages
o Fans are biased
o Subjective rankings (may be influenced by program tradition and/ or media)
Who-beat (http://www.whobeat.net/)
Who-beat (est. 1995) is exactly what it sounds like: a rankings system based simply on who you have beaten and who those teams have beaten. It uses only wins to evaluate teams, so before the season, each team (even Syracuse) is ranked #1.
How it works:
1. Team A beats Team B and Team A earns 1 win
2. Team B beats 3 teams (3 more wins for Team A)
3. Those 3 teams beat a total of 15 teams (15 more wins for Team A)
4. Team A for that week has a total of 19 wins
5. #1 team in the rankings has the most total wins
Is it reliable/ valid?
Looking at the rankings before the 2007 bowl games, the rankings looked like this:
1. LSU (won national title 38-24)
2. Oklahoma (lost in blowout in bowl game)
3. Virginia Tech (lost bowl game)
4. Missouri (won in blowout in bowl game)
5. Southern Cal (won in blowout in bowl game)
6. West Virginia (won in blowout in bowl game)
7. Ohio State (lost national title 24-38)
Before the 2008 bowl games, who-beat rankings looked like this:
1. Florida (won national title 24-14)
2. Oklahoma (lost national title 14-24)
3. Texas (won bowl game)
4. Alabama (lost bowl game in blowout)
5. Pittsburgh (lost bowl game)
6. Southern Cal (won bowl game in blowout)
7. Utah (won bowl game in blowout)
After week 6 of the 2009 season:
1. Alabama
2. Virginia Tech
3. Iowa
4. Florida
5. LSU
6. Washington
7. Ohio State
What can we learn by this look at who-beat? It looks as though #1 in the who-beat rankings following the regular season will most likely win the national championship and should absolutely be in the game, but after #1 who knows. It does look like any team ranked higher than 5 in the final who-beat rankings does not deserve to be in the national title game (see Ohio State circa 2007). Based on the week 6 rankings of this year with 3-3 Washington in the top 6, it looks as though these rankings are unreliable on a week to week basis.
Interesting observations:
- Ohio State (11-1) finished #7 in the 2007 post regular season rankings despite one of the best numerical regular season records and had a poor showing in the national title game
- Oklahoma’s rankings may be enhanced by the Big 12 schedule and the conference title game
- USC’s rankings may be too low based on the Pac-10 schedule and lack of conference title game
- BCS “busters” Hawaii in 2007 and Utah in 2008 are ranked much lower in these rankings despite their undefeated regular seasons
- Maybe Texas deserved to play Florida in 2008, they did beat Oklahoma and only the Big 12 championship game rules kept Texas out of their conference championship, which may have given Texas the rankings boost to play Florida
Summary
Advantages
o Objective (eliminates bias)
o Doesn’t detract for losses
o Not affected by “style points” or blowouts
o Strongly favors strength of schedule (eliminates BCS “busters”)
Disadvantages
o Doesn’t detract for losses
o Strongly favors strength of schedule (may hurt BCS leagues with no conference title game)
Coaches/ AP poll (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings)
For years, these have been the gold standard for ranking football teams, but should they be so? The AP poll is comprised of > 60 sportswriters from across the country with a preseason poll and weekly polls. Sportswriters are generally regarded as experts in the sports that they cover. But, if sportswriter A covers Team A and writes a daily column on Team A, does sportswriter A really know enough about teams B-Z to accurately rank them, or will the writer simply look at results and rank based on previous week and is he or she susceptible to “style point” rankings?
The Coaches’ poll is comprised of > 60 coaches from across the country with a preseason poll and weekly polls. Similar to sportswriter A, does Coach A really have time to research all the teams outside of his conference and accurately rank the teams without bias?
Are they reliable/ valid?
Before 2007 bowl games:
AP Poll
1. Ohio State (lost national title in blowout)
2. LSU (won national title in blowout)
3. Oklahoma (lost bowl game in blowout)
4. Georgia (won bowl game in blowout)
5. Virginia Tech (lost bowl game)
6. USC (won bowl game in blowout)
7. Missouri (won bowl game in blowout)
Coaches’ Poll
1. Ohio State (see above)
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Virginia Tech
6. USC
7. Missouri
Before 2008 bowl games:
AP Poll
1. Florida (won national title)
2. Oklahoma (lost national title)
3. Texas (won bowl game)
4. Alabama (lost bowl game in blowout)
5. USC (won bowl game in blowout)
6. Penn State (lost bowl game in blowout)
7. Utah (won bowl game in blowout)
Coaches’ Poll
1. Oklahoma (see above)
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Penn State
7. Utah
After week 6 of 2009:
AP Poll
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Virginia Tech
5. Boise State
6. USC
7. Ohio State
Coaches’ Poll
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Virginia Tech
5. USC
6. Boise State
7. Ohio State
The two groups seem to vote very very similarly (maybe the result of the same bias and same limited exposure to other teams?). The deserving national champion is usually in the top 2. Week to week rankings may not make complete sense, but through the course of the season, the “cream of the crop will rise to the top”, showing that these polls are very reliable when it comes down to the end of the season.
Summary
Advantages
o Respected for years
o Voters are professionals in the sport
o Reliable at the end of each year
o Detracts for losses
o Each has good number of voters, statistically
Disadvantages
o Static (#1 remains there until they lose)
o Detracts for losses (all losses are not created equal)
o Vulnerable to “style points” and blowouts
o First ballots are cast in the offseason based on assumptions from the previous year’s finish and # of players returning
o Coaches and sports writers tend to weight their teams and conferences higher and don’t get to see as many games as fans
Conclusion
Each ranking style has its unique strengths and it appears that the Mumme Poll may actually be the most accurate way to rank teams because many fans who watch multiple games a week vote, however there is limited evidence so far to support it. Who-beat looks to be GREAT when it comes to determining the actual national champion, but again there is limited evidence. The traditional polls have great evidence but are way too vulnerable to bias and may not be the best method. It appears as though a combination of all of these would provide the best rankings system ... which actually validates the BCS. Hmmm…
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
DVD Draft Creating Buzz
Friends, Romans, Countrymen of Sully's World,
The Sullivan-Gooley DVD Draft is approaching, and the buzz is already heating up. Dozens of readers have already expressed great anticipation of the draft, and many list-makers have sent me their own Top 10 via email, Facebook, and late-night phone calls. In case you have no idea what I'm talking about, you can read the "Previewing the Next Project" article posted a couple weeks ago or follow the rules and guidelines listed below.
(First, I must give credit where credit's due, I thank The Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, for inspiring this draft. Many spin-off's are sure to follow (directors, producers, screenwriters, etc.), so I thank him for sparking the idea.)
The main purpose: choose an actor, and you receive his or her entire DVD collection. Who are your top 10, and why?
Disclaimers:
1. Cameos/appearances don't count. The actor must have at least a minor part in the film. Examples of what don't count: Alfred Hitchcock appearing in all of his films; Samuel L. Jackson after the credits in Iron Man; the guy who shows up as Annikan Skywalker at the end of the original Return of the Jedi.
2. While cameos/appearances don't count; minor roles DO count. There's a difference. Examples of minor roles that fit the bill: John C. Reilly in Gangs of New York; Matt Damon at the end of Finding Forrester; and Clive Owen as the assassin in The Bourne Supremacy.
Other than those disclaimers, it's fair game. You pick your 10, then be prepared to defend your answers. By taking in all roles of a movie career - not necessarily starring roles - this draft opens up the doors to so many actors who got the chance to play supporting roles in a ton of good movies; however not got the chance to carry a movie on their own. The best example of this: John Cazale. He was only in five films, so he probably won't make my list for an entire body of work; however, the five films he was in would make for a sick DVD collection (The Godfather, The Godfather Part 2, The Conversation, The Deer Hunter, and Dog Day Afternoon). While he may not make my Top 10, he's a solid top-30 pick ... not bad for five films.
To give you a model of a solid Top Ten, look no further than Aaron Wallace. Aaron's movie knowledge is legit, and he currently writes DVD reviews while attending Law School at Wake Forest. Listed below is a message he sent me through Facebook. What I love about his top ten is that he doesn't hesitate to take risks. Not every person in his top 10 is a blockbuster; and while Aaron admits a present-day bias for having grown up in the 80s, 90s, and 2000s, he also includes a few actors with 40-year track records who have made an impact on 5 decades. So far this is the best list I've seen that I can use as a preview to the Sullivan-Gooley DVD Draft. Stay tuned!
#1 Tom Cruise
He's up first because, if you read Mike's earlier post announcing this draft, you know he's in high demand. I need only two words to make my case for Cruise: Top Gun. But while his Gen-X roles made him a star, it's his more recent work that makes him such an important draft choice. In between jumping on Oprah's couch and brainwashing Katie Holmes, he's found time to make some of this decade's best films, from the latter (and better) two entries in the Mission: Impossible saga to his persona-redefining turn in Tropic Thunder. He's been in two of Cameron Crowe's best movies (Jerry Maguire, Vanilla Sky) and one of Spielberg's best (Minority Report), and even one of Spielberg's weaker films that I STILL want on my shelf (War of the Worlds).
#2 Tom Hanks
Is there any DVD collection of 15 or more that doesn't have at least one Tom Hanks movie in it? There shouldn't be. In fact, you could have a collection of 15 DVDs, each of them starring Tom Hanks, and have a pretty strong roster. I'll name those 15 now: Splash, Big, A League of Their Own, Philadelphia, Forrest Gump, Apollo 13, Toy Story, That Thing You Do!, Saving Private Ryan, Toy Story 2, The Green Mile, Catch Me If You Can, The Terminal, The Polar Express, and Charlie Wilson's War. And that's just scratching the surface. Granted, I might think it's a little weird if the only movies you own all star Tom Hanks, but you'd earn mandatory respect nonetheless.
#3 Will Smith
I can't begin to appraise the worth of a Will Smith DVD collection without first noting that it would include all six seasons (once they're released) of "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air", which makes him a pretty essential draft pick in and of itself. We needn't turn to TV (or rap) to find Smith's real value, though. Men in Black, Independence Day, and Bad Boys are staples of any movie library, the titles that made him the King of the 1990s Action/Comedy. Those films' sequels (well, there's no ID4-2 yet) are pretty worthwhile too. And I don't care how bad it supposedly is, I love watching Wild, Wild West. Will Smith has got to be the only rapping comedy star whose biggest crowd pleasers are sci-fi flicks. I, Robot is probably the best contemporary "Frankenstein" film and while I Am Legend is kind of narratively muddled, you've got to have the Blu-ray disc if you've gone hi-def because the transfer is out of this world. One of my favorite Will Smith movies finds the young actor going for nothing but laughs in the oft-forgotten Made in America. I want to be sure I own that one so I can loan it out to others who'll be seeing it for the first time.
#4 Johnny Depp
Steven Spielberg is probably the greatest director to ever live, and Orson Welles or Billy Wilder might have been the best, but Tim Burton is my favorite. Naturally, then, I'll be needing Johnny Depp's complete filmography. Edward Scissorhands. Ed Wood. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. These unforgettably showcase the considerable talent of both men, and then there is arguably their mutual career best: Sweeney Todd. Unlike Burton, though, Depp hasn't been so relentlessly dark. His versatility shines through in his movie collection, from the quirky (Benny & Joon) to the charming (Chocolat) to the imaginative (Finding Neverland) to the badass (Jack Sparrow, savvy?). In addition to all these, drafting Johnny gets you a whole host of crazy little film ventures on the side for your diversifying pleasure.
#5 Humphrey Bogart
He played Rick in Casablanca. I don't feel the least bit compelled to justify this pick with anything else. Just for fun, though, I will. While most stars of the classic era have only one or two enduring films to their credit, at least a third of Bogart's work ranks among the indisputably greatest movies ever made. The Maltese Falcon, The Treasure of the Sierra Madre, and The African Queen are but a few, and each among my favorites. Casablanca aside, though, I'd be most excited about bringing home his extensive film noir work, classics like The Big Sleep and In a Lonely Place included.
#6 Morgan Freeman
I think an all-day Morgan Freeman marathon would be some sort of inspiration overdose. Listening to that voice all day long, the one that makes you believe him even when he's the bad guy, would have me jacked up on enough purpose and good intentions to qualify me for a Nobel Peace Prize. His career is essentially comprised of variations on "the magic negro," but nobody plays the part like him. Driving Miss Daisy, Unforgiven, The Shawshank Redemption, Bruce Almighty, The Dark Knight... the man can drive you out of prison in a Batmobile he made from scratch, speaking with the voice of God along the way. What more could you ask for?
#7 Jack Nicholson
Heath Ledger gave one of the most celebrated performances of all time as The Joker and still the best that can be said is that Ledger's Joker is "different" from -- not better than -- Jack Nicholson's. No actor has intrigued me or freaked me out as consistently as Nicholson, in all-time greats like Chinatown, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, The Witches of Eastwick, The Departed, and perhaps my favorite (but certainly not the best) Kubrick film, The Shining. I also give major props to Anger Management, in which Nicholson explores the funny side of crazy for a change.
#8 Dustin Hoffman
With Dustin Hoffman, you get at least two defining films from each of the last five decades. From the '60s: Midnight Cowboy and The Graduate. From the '70s: All the President's Men and Kramer vs. Kramer. From the '80s: Tootsie and Rain Man. From the '90s: Dick Tracy and Hook. From this decade: Finding Neverland and I Heart Huckabees (which may not be altogether definitive but it is nevertheless excellent). The greatest of these is, of course, The Graduate, a movie you are simply required to have in your collection -- so, case closed. Hoffman also gets you fun, if less prestigious, movies like Agatha and Sphere.
#9 Leonardo DiCaprio
Now before you roll your eyes, let me remind you that he graduated from his "teen heartthrob" stigma ten years ago -- and even when he was in the middle of it, he was acting with more skill than any other in his ilk (not to mention headlining the most successful movie of all time). From the "Leo" era, The Basketball Diaries, Romeo + Juliet, Marvin's Room, and The Man in the Iron Mask are all strong films in their own right. From grown-up DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, Blood Diamond, The Departed, and Revolutionary Road have each been heralded with tremendous acclaim. And then, of course, there's Titanic. Added bonus: "Growing Pains".
#10 Ben Stiller - I really only needed to see four Ben Stiller movies to know that I'd want to draft him: Zoolander, Meet the Parents, Night at the Museum, and Tropic Thunder. He has so many others to supplement that hilarious line-up, though: Heavyweights, Mystery Men, There's Something About Mary, Starsky & Hutch, Keeping the Faith, and the list goes on. If it counts as more than a cameo, I get Happy Gilmore too, which makes me feel a lot better about choosing Stiller over Sandler.
The Sullivan-Gooley DVD Draft is approaching, and the buzz is already heating up. Dozens of readers have already expressed great anticipation of the draft, and many list-makers have sent me their own Top 10 via email, Facebook, and late-night phone calls. In case you have no idea what I'm talking about, you can read the "Previewing the Next Project" article posted a couple weeks ago or follow the rules and guidelines listed below.
(First, I must give credit where credit's due, I thank The Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, for inspiring this draft. Many spin-off's are sure to follow (directors, producers, screenwriters, etc.), so I thank him for sparking the idea.)
The main purpose: choose an actor, and you receive his or her entire DVD collection. Who are your top 10, and why?
Disclaimers:
1. Cameos/appearances don't count. The actor must have at least a minor part in the film. Examples of what don't count: Alfred Hitchcock appearing in all of his films; Samuel L. Jackson after the credits in Iron Man; the guy who shows up as Annikan Skywalker at the end of the original Return of the Jedi.
2. While cameos/appearances don't count; minor roles DO count. There's a difference. Examples of minor roles that fit the bill: John C. Reilly in Gangs of New York; Matt Damon at the end of Finding Forrester; and Clive Owen as the assassin in The Bourne Supremacy.
Other than those disclaimers, it's fair game. You pick your 10, then be prepared to defend your answers. By taking in all roles of a movie career - not necessarily starring roles - this draft opens up the doors to so many actors who got the chance to play supporting roles in a ton of good movies; however not got the chance to carry a movie on their own. The best example of this: John Cazale. He was only in five films, so he probably won't make my list for an entire body of work; however, the five films he was in would make for a sick DVD collection (The Godfather, The Godfather Part 2, The Conversation, The Deer Hunter, and Dog Day Afternoon). While he may not make my Top 10, he's a solid top-30 pick ... not bad for five films.
To give you a model of a solid Top Ten, look no further than Aaron Wallace. Aaron's movie knowledge is legit, and he currently writes DVD reviews while attending Law School at Wake Forest. Listed below is a message he sent me through Facebook. What I love about his top ten is that he doesn't hesitate to take risks. Not every person in his top 10 is a blockbuster; and while Aaron admits a present-day bias for having grown up in the 80s, 90s, and 2000s, he also includes a few actors with 40-year track records who have made an impact on 5 decades. So far this is the best list I've seen that I can use as a preview to the Sullivan-Gooley DVD Draft. Stay tuned!
#1 Tom Cruise
He's up first because, if you read Mike's earlier post announcing this draft, you know he's in high demand. I need only two words to make my case for Cruise: Top Gun. But while his Gen-X roles made him a star, it's his more recent work that makes him such an important draft choice. In between jumping on Oprah's couch and brainwashing Katie Holmes, he's found time to make some of this decade's best films, from the latter (and better) two entries in the Mission: Impossible saga to his persona-redefining turn in Tropic Thunder. He's been in two of Cameron Crowe's best movies (Jerry Maguire, Vanilla Sky) and one of Spielberg's best (Minority Report), and even one of Spielberg's weaker films that I STILL want on my shelf (War of the Worlds).
#2 Tom Hanks
Is there any DVD collection of 15 or more that doesn't have at least one Tom Hanks movie in it? There shouldn't be. In fact, you could have a collection of 15 DVDs, each of them starring Tom Hanks, and have a pretty strong roster. I'll name those 15 now: Splash, Big, A League of Their Own, Philadelphia, Forrest Gump, Apollo 13, Toy Story, That Thing You Do!, Saving Private Ryan, Toy Story 2, The Green Mile, Catch Me If You Can, The Terminal, The Polar Express, and Charlie Wilson's War. And that's just scratching the surface. Granted, I might think it's a little weird if the only movies you own all star Tom Hanks, but you'd earn mandatory respect nonetheless.
#3 Will Smith
I can't begin to appraise the worth of a Will Smith DVD collection without first noting that it would include all six seasons (once they're released) of "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air", which makes him a pretty essential draft pick in and of itself. We needn't turn to TV (or rap) to find Smith's real value, though. Men in Black, Independence Day, and Bad Boys are staples of any movie library, the titles that made him the King of the 1990s Action/Comedy. Those films' sequels (well, there's no ID4-2 yet) are pretty worthwhile too. And I don't care how bad it supposedly is, I love watching Wild, Wild West. Will Smith has got to be the only rapping comedy star whose biggest crowd pleasers are sci-fi flicks. I, Robot is probably the best contemporary "Frankenstein" film and while I Am Legend is kind of narratively muddled, you've got to have the Blu-ray disc if you've gone hi-def because the transfer is out of this world. One of my favorite Will Smith movies finds the young actor going for nothing but laughs in the oft-forgotten Made in America. I want to be sure I own that one so I can loan it out to others who'll be seeing it for the first time.
#4 Johnny Depp
Steven Spielberg is probably the greatest director to ever live, and Orson Welles or Billy Wilder might have been the best, but Tim Burton is my favorite. Naturally, then, I'll be needing Johnny Depp's complete filmography. Edward Scissorhands. Ed Wood. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. These unforgettably showcase the considerable talent of both men, and then there is arguably their mutual career best: Sweeney Todd. Unlike Burton, though, Depp hasn't been so relentlessly dark. His versatility shines through in his movie collection, from the quirky (Benny & Joon) to the charming (Chocolat) to the imaginative (Finding Neverland) to the badass (Jack Sparrow, savvy?). In addition to all these, drafting Johnny gets you a whole host of crazy little film ventures on the side for your diversifying pleasure.
#5 Humphrey Bogart
He played Rick in Casablanca. I don't feel the least bit compelled to justify this pick with anything else. Just for fun, though, I will. While most stars of the classic era have only one or two enduring films to their credit, at least a third of Bogart's work ranks among the indisputably greatest movies ever made. The Maltese Falcon, The Treasure of the Sierra Madre, and The African Queen are but a few, and each among my favorites. Casablanca aside, though, I'd be most excited about bringing home his extensive film noir work, classics like The Big Sleep and In a Lonely Place included.
#6 Morgan Freeman
I think an all-day Morgan Freeman marathon would be some sort of inspiration overdose. Listening to that voice all day long, the one that makes you believe him even when he's the bad guy, would have me jacked up on enough purpose and good intentions to qualify me for a Nobel Peace Prize. His career is essentially comprised of variations on "the magic negro," but nobody plays the part like him. Driving Miss Daisy, Unforgiven, The Shawshank Redemption, Bruce Almighty, The Dark Knight... the man can drive you out of prison in a Batmobile he made from scratch, speaking with the voice of God along the way. What more could you ask for?
#7 Jack Nicholson
Heath Ledger gave one of the most celebrated performances of all time as The Joker and still the best that can be said is that Ledger's Joker is "different" from -- not better than -- Jack Nicholson's. No actor has intrigued me or freaked me out as consistently as Nicholson, in all-time greats like Chinatown, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, The Witches of Eastwick, The Departed, and perhaps my favorite (but certainly not the best) Kubrick film, The Shining. I also give major props to Anger Management, in which Nicholson explores the funny side of crazy for a change.
#8 Dustin Hoffman
With Dustin Hoffman, you get at least two defining films from each of the last five decades. From the '60s: Midnight Cowboy and The Graduate. From the '70s: All the President's Men and Kramer vs. Kramer. From the '80s: Tootsie and Rain Man. From the '90s: Dick Tracy and Hook. From this decade: Finding Neverland and I Heart Huckabees (which may not be altogether definitive but it is nevertheless excellent). The greatest of these is, of course, The Graduate, a movie you are simply required to have in your collection -- so, case closed. Hoffman also gets you fun, if less prestigious, movies like Agatha and Sphere.
#9 Leonardo DiCaprio
Now before you roll your eyes, let me remind you that he graduated from his "teen heartthrob" stigma ten years ago -- and even when he was in the middle of it, he was acting with more skill than any other in his ilk (not to mention headlining the most successful movie of all time). From the "Leo" era, The Basketball Diaries, Romeo + Juliet, Marvin's Room, and The Man in the Iron Mask are all strong films in their own right. From grown-up DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, Blood Diamond, The Departed, and Revolutionary Road have each been heralded with tremendous acclaim. And then, of course, there's Titanic. Added bonus: "Growing Pains".
#10 Ben Stiller - I really only needed to see four Ben Stiller movies to know that I'd want to draft him: Zoolander, Meet the Parents, Night at the Museum, and Tropic Thunder. He has so many others to supplement that hilarious line-up, though: Heavyweights, Mystery Men, There's Something About Mary, Starsky & Hutch, Keeping the Faith, and the list goes on. If it counts as more than a cameo, I get Happy Gilmore too, which makes me feel a lot better about choosing Stiller over Sandler.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
NCAA Football: Who Still Matters
Now that we're five weeks into the 2009 football season, it's time to start highlighting who can actually play football, who has been pretending to play football, and who is still living off their name as a traditional football team. Without further ado, here's the current coaches poll:
1. Florida (54)
2. Texas (1)
3. Alabama (5)
4. LSU
5. Virginia Tech
6. Boise State
7. USC
8. Cincinnati
9. Ohio State
10. TCU
11. Miami
12. Iowa
13. Oregon
14. Penn State
15. Oklahoma State
16. Kansas
17. Auburn
18. BYU
19. Oklahoma
20. Ole Miss
21. Nebraska
22. Georgia Tech
23. South Florida
24. Missouri
25. South Carolina
Others: Wisconsin, Houston, Georgia, Stanford, Utah, Michigan, Boston College, Notre Dame, Pitt, Arizona, West Virginia
By Conference:
6 - SEC: Florida (1), Alabama (3), LSU (4), Auburn (17), Ole Miss (20), South Carolina (25)
6 - Big 12: Texas (2), Oklahoma State (15), Kansas (16), Oklahoma (19), Nebraska (21), Missouri (24)
3 - ACC: Virginia Tech (5), Miami (11), Georgia Tech (22)
3 - Big Ten: Ohio State (9), Iowa (12), Penn St (14)
2 - Pac 10: USC (7), Oregon (13)
2 - Big East: Cincinnati (8), South Florida (23)
2 - Mountain West: TCU (10), BYU (18)
1 - WAC: Boise St (6)
Contenders - Florida, Texas, Alabama, USC
Florida - Next week's showdown in Baton Rouge will be Tim Tebow's chance to move up a few notches in College Football's All-Time Greatest list. You are fresh off a concussion, surrounded by 90,000 people who want to see you die on national television, and have done nothing over the last 2 weeks but watch re-runs of yourself getting leveled by a Kentucky defensive end. Your undefeated season, your rivalry bragging rights, and your legacy all hang in the balance. Pressure? What pressure?
Texas - Ok, so you haven't played anyone yet. The good news is: the only loss you've had in the last two years came on the last play against un-signed NFL WR Michael Crabtree; and you won the re-match (like that took much effort). You had last weekend off; you pretty much have this weekend off (Colorado); and face a showdown against not-completely-rehabilitated-yet Sam Bradford 2 weeks from now. While the Big 12 is supposed to be great, Texas sure has an easy run ahead of 'em.
Alabama - The only loss you've had in the last two years came against Florida in the SEC Championship game. You dominated a strong Virginia Tech squad on opening night; coasted for the last month; and now enter the meat of your SEC schedule. If you can survive at Ole Miss this weekend, you get to face LSU at home before an epic Iron Bowl matchup against Auburn on 11/27. The SEC West is rediculous.
USC - It seems like every year you have a WTF loss that motivates you to destroy the rest of the Pac 10. Two years ago it was Stanford; last year it was Oregon State; and this year you had Washington. Now you've hosted Washington State as a welcome-back scrimmage for the injured Matt Barkley; and pummelled over-rated Cal in what was supposed to be a close game. If you can survive back-to-back-to-back games against Notre Dame (haha), Oregon State (grudge game at home), and Oregon (mystery team of the year, next to Florida State).
Still Need to Prove It - Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ohio St
Virginia Tech - I still have no idea what to make of them. Yea, they lost a close game to Alabama to start the season, buy yet it was still the first game of the season. Alabama could have been rusty; VT could have played one heck of a game; or they're a legitimate squad. They destroyed Miami (3-1 against 4 ranked opponents to start off the season), but the conditions were awful (it looked like a monsoon) and the Hurricanes didn't show up. Their other big win? Nebraska (3-1, whose victories came against Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette) by 1 point. Nebraska is ranked, but I'll discuss them in a moment.
Cincinnati - They went 11-2 last year, won the Big East, went to the Orange Bowl, returned their star QB, and still weren't in the preseason Top 25. In fact, no Big East team was ranked to begin the season, and the Bearcats owe their current #8 ranking to all the other teams ahead of them who decided to lose over the last 5 weeks. Cincinnati hasn't really played anybody, unless you think their opponents' 8-15 combined record is something to brag about. Their rise up the rankings has been linear - they've moved up 3-4 spots each week - and seem to be moving up by sheer default. They may never really face a true quality opponent after South Florida (who they get a bye week to prepare for), allowing them to cruise into a BCS Bowl without any serious challenges. Until they either destroy South Florida or win in January, they will not crack my top 10.
Ohio State - They're Ohio State. Win a bowl game and quit playing high-schools in the Midwest. Then I'll half-way take them seriously.
Underrated Contenders - Miami, Oregon, Auburn, and South Florida
Miami - Wow, what a start. You've already faced the bulk of your ACC schedule and upset Oklahoma. Your last 3 tests are all away games: Wake Forest (over-rated), UNC (horrible, but who knows. Miami always struggles with UNC), and South Florida. If the U can make it through the rest of the season with 1 loss, they will have a date with a weak Atlantic Division foe in the ACC Championship Game en route to the BCS National Championship Game. Also, if Florida loses between now and December, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford may very well welcome Jacory Harris as the 3rd straight sophomore QB to with the Heisman Trophy.
Oregon - Their only loss came in the first week against a top-5 Boise State team; they host USC at home in 3 weeks in the "Pac-10 championship game"; and have 2 minor road challenges (Washington and Stanford) from a trip to the Rose Bowl. Also, if they only lose one of those three games, we may be seeing Oregon enter the BCS as an at-large bid to take on Boise State or TCU. Roll that up and smoke it, LeGarrette Blount.
Auburn - Offense? Where did that come from? Is this the same Auburn who went 5-7 last year, with one of those victories being 3-2 over Mississippi State? After 5 games, they've already matched last year's win total; and are on pace to have a 3,000-yd passer, two 1,000-yd rushers, and 40 points per game. After scoring more points at Tennessee than Florida did against Tennessee at the Swamp, Auburn has entered the national spotlight. Unfortunatley, that's where the good news ends. The bad news: Auburn plays in the SEC West, which, as a 6-team division, is easily the toughest conference in college football. The end of Auburn's schedule would make Miami's first 4 games look like a cake walk. In 34 days, they play LSU (away), Ole Miss, Georgia (away), and Alabama.
South Florida - So how do you respond to losing your starting QB for the rest of the season? Easy, you let your backup throw for 200 yds/gm and rush for 80 yds/gm while traveling to Florida State and Syracuse and beating them both ... convincingly. On the 15th, they host Cincinnati in a sure-to-be battle of undefeateds for the fast-track to the Big East Championship. Unlike Cincinnati, South Florida has already proven themselves. While they have a more difficult road to the Orange Bowl (@Pitt, @Rutgers, @UConn ... plus Miami at home), I wouldn't count out South Florida yet.
Ranked Solely on Reputation - Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Ole Miss, The Big Ten
Oklahoma State - They looked really great against Georgia ... until we found out Georgia was horrible. They looked really bad against Houston ... until we found out Houston was horrible, too (UTEP put up 58 points on Houston last week. 2-and-3 UTEP. Ouch.).
Nebraksa - The only thing keeping Nebraska from an undefeated record is a university that actually plays football. Once Nebraska played a real-life football team, they couldn't handle the pressure; and they lost by 1 point.
Ole Miss - Syracuse, led by Duke point guard Greg Paulus, looked better than Ole Miss on 9/24. That's the night Ole Miss lost the most boring, torcherous game of the year (next to NC State/South Carolina on opening night). I mean that game was painful. After that, I dropped Ole Miss out of my Top 25 and put them just ahead of Syracuse (go to hell, Greg Paulus). Unless they beat Alabama this weekend, I wouldn't vote Ole Miss for dogcatcher.
The Big Ten - Listed below are the non-conference opponents for each Big Ten school. The majority of these games are played in-succession toward the beginning of the season; and, as you will soon tell, not many of these game pose much of a challenge to any school from a BCS conference. What does this mean? It means that most Big Ten schools have an extra month of scrimmages before starting conference play; and, with most of these schools going 4-0 out of conference, each Big Ten team only needs to win 2 conference games to become bowl eligible. Just think about it: what if you went 2-6 in your conference, but went to a bowl game? While I admit that many BCS conferences intentionally schedule weaker non-conference teams to play in the regular season, most of those BCS schools do so in order to provide a break from the harsh conditions and brutal competition from their inter-conference opponents. These schools also take the time out to schedule a QUALITY non-conference opponent for the very purpose of boosting their strength-of-schedule. While the Big Ten plays several schools from BCS Conferences (14 total), the vast majority of these opponents come from the bottom rungs of their corresponding conference. Example? Sure! Syracuse, led by Duke point guard Greg Paulus. Syracuse sucks so bad that they begged a Caucasian point guard to be their starting QB knowing full well that he hadn't touched a football in 4 years. What's funnier? Syracuse plays Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern (and beat Northwestern, LOL); and Syracuse will be Penn State and Northwestern's only opponent from a BCS Conference outside the Big Ten.
Moral of the (Big Ten) story: Schedule good teams; beat good teams (especially in January); and until that happens, stop complaining about how you're not getting respect.
Navy
USC
Toledo
New Mexico State
Northern Illinois
Fresno State
Wofford
Hawaii
Northern Iowa
Iowa State
Arizona
Arkansas State
Western Michigan
Notre Dame
Eastern Michigan
Delaware State
Akron
Syracuse
Temple
Eastern Illinois
Syracuse
Air Force
California
South Dakota State
Towson
Eastern Michigan
Syracuse
Miami (OH)
Montana State
Central Michigan
Notre Dame
Western Michigan
Toledo
Oregon
Northern Illinois
Notre Dame
Eastern Kentucky
Western Michigan
Akron
Virginia
Missouri
Illinois State
Cincinnati
Fresno State
1. Florida (54)
2. Texas (1)
3. Alabama (5)
4. LSU
5. Virginia Tech
6. Boise State
7. USC
8. Cincinnati
9. Ohio State
10. TCU
11. Miami
12. Iowa
13. Oregon
14. Penn State
15. Oklahoma State
16. Kansas
17. Auburn
18. BYU
19. Oklahoma
20. Ole Miss
21. Nebraska
22. Georgia Tech
23. South Florida
24. Missouri
25. South Carolina
Others: Wisconsin, Houston, Georgia, Stanford, Utah, Michigan, Boston College, Notre Dame, Pitt, Arizona, West Virginia
By Conference:
6 - SEC: Florida (1), Alabama (3), LSU (4), Auburn (17), Ole Miss (20), South Carolina (25)
6 - Big 12: Texas (2), Oklahoma State (15), Kansas (16), Oklahoma (19), Nebraska (21), Missouri (24)
3 - ACC: Virginia Tech (5), Miami (11), Georgia Tech (22)
3 - Big Ten: Ohio State (9), Iowa (12), Penn St (14)
2 - Pac 10: USC (7), Oregon (13)
2 - Big East: Cincinnati (8), South Florida (23)
2 - Mountain West: TCU (10), BYU (18)
1 - WAC: Boise St (6)
Contenders - Florida, Texas, Alabama, USC
Florida - Next week's showdown in Baton Rouge will be Tim Tebow's chance to move up a few notches in College Football's All-Time Greatest list. You are fresh off a concussion, surrounded by 90,000 people who want to see you die on national television, and have done nothing over the last 2 weeks but watch re-runs of yourself getting leveled by a Kentucky defensive end. Your undefeated season, your rivalry bragging rights, and your legacy all hang in the balance. Pressure? What pressure?
Texas - Ok, so you haven't played anyone yet. The good news is: the only loss you've had in the last two years came on the last play against un-signed NFL WR Michael Crabtree; and you won the re-match (like that took much effort). You had last weekend off; you pretty much have this weekend off (Colorado); and face a showdown against not-completely-rehabilitated-yet Sam Bradford 2 weeks from now. While the Big 12 is supposed to be great, Texas sure has an easy run ahead of 'em.
Alabama - The only loss you've had in the last two years came against Florida in the SEC Championship game. You dominated a strong Virginia Tech squad on opening night; coasted for the last month; and now enter the meat of your SEC schedule. If you can survive at Ole Miss this weekend, you get to face LSU at home before an epic Iron Bowl matchup against Auburn on 11/27. The SEC West is rediculous.
USC - It seems like every year you have a WTF loss that motivates you to destroy the rest of the Pac 10. Two years ago it was Stanford; last year it was Oregon State; and this year you had Washington. Now you've hosted Washington State as a welcome-back scrimmage for the injured Matt Barkley; and pummelled over-rated Cal in what was supposed to be a close game. If you can survive back-to-back-to-back games against Notre Dame (haha), Oregon State (grudge game at home), and Oregon (mystery team of the year, next to Florida State).
Still Need to Prove It - Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ohio St
Virginia Tech - I still have no idea what to make of them. Yea, they lost a close game to Alabama to start the season, buy yet it was still the first game of the season. Alabama could have been rusty; VT could have played one heck of a game; or they're a legitimate squad. They destroyed Miami (3-1 against 4 ranked opponents to start off the season), but the conditions were awful (it looked like a monsoon) and the Hurricanes didn't show up. Their other big win? Nebraska (3-1, whose victories came against Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette) by 1 point. Nebraska is ranked, but I'll discuss them in a moment.
Cincinnati - They went 11-2 last year, won the Big East, went to the Orange Bowl, returned their star QB, and still weren't in the preseason Top 25. In fact, no Big East team was ranked to begin the season, and the Bearcats owe their current #8 ranking to all the other teams ahead of them who decided to lose over the last 5 weeks. Cincinnati hasn't really played anybody, unless you think their opponents' 8-15 combined record is something to brag about. Their rise up the rankings has been linear - they've moved up 3-4 spots each week - and seem to be moving up by sheer default. They may never really face a true quality opponent after South Florida (who they get a bye week to prepare for), allowing them to cruise into a BCS Bowl without any serious challenges. Until they either destroy South Florida or win in January, they will not crack my top 10.
Ohio State - They're Ohio State. Win a bowl game and quit playing high-schools in the Midwest. Then I'll half-way take them seriously.
Underrated Contenders - Miami, Oregon, Auburn, and South Florida
Miami - Wow, what a start. You've already faced the bulk of your ACC schedule and upset Oklahoma. Your last 3 tests are all away games: Wake Forest (over-rated), UNC (horrible, but who knows. Miami always struggles with UNC), and South Florida. If the U can make it through the rest of the season with 1 loss, they will have a date with a weak Atlantic Division foe in the ACC Championship Game en route to the BCS National Championship Game. Also, if Florida loses between now and December, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford may very well welcome Jacory Harris as the 3rd straight sophomore QB to with the Heisman Trophy.
Oregon - Their only loss came in the first week against a top-5 Boise State team; they host USC at home in 3 weeks in the "Pac-10 championship game"; and have 2 minor road challenges (Washington and Stanford) from a trip to the Rose Bowl. Also, if they only lose one of those three games, we may be seeing Oregon enter the BCS as an at-large bid to take on Boise State or TCU. Roll that up and smoke it, LeGarrette Blount.
Auburn - Offense? Where did that come from? Is this the same Auburn who went 5-7 last year, with one of those victories being 3-2 over Mississippi State? After 5 games, they've already matched last year's win total; and are on pace to have a 3,000-yd passer, two 1,000-yd rushers, and 40 points per game. After scoring more points at Tennessee than Florida did against Tennessee at the Swamp, Auburn has entered the national spotlight. Unfortunatley, that's where the good news ends. The bad news: Auburn plays in the SEC West, which, as a 6-team division, is easily the toughest conference in college football. The end of Auburn's schedule would make Miami's first 4 games look like a cake walk. In 34 days, they play LSU (away), Ole Miss, Georgia (away), and Alabama.
South Florida - So how do you respond to losing your starting QB for the rest of the season? Easy, you let your backup throw for 200 yds/gm and rush for 80 yds/gm while traveling to Florida State and Syracuse and beating them both ... convincingly. On the 15th, they host Cincinnati in a sure-to-be battle of undefeateds for the fast-track to the Big East Championship. Unlike Cincinnati, South Florida has already proven themselves. While they have a more difficult road to the Orange Bowl (@Pitt, @Rutgers, @UConn ... plus Miami at home), I wouldn't count out South Florida yet.
Ranked Solely on Reputation - Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Ole Miss, The Big Ten
Oklahoma State - They looked really great against Georgia ... until we found out Georgia was horrible. They looked really bad against Houston ... until we found out Houston was horrible, too (UTEP put up 58 points on Houston last week. 2-and-3 UTEP. Ouch.).
Nebraksa - The only thing keeping Nebraska from an undefeated record is a university that actually plays football. Once Nebraska played a real-life football team, they couldn't handle the pressure; and they lost by 1 point.
Ole Miss - Syracuse, led by Duke point guard Greg Paulus, looked better than Ole Miss on 9/24. That's the night Ole Miss lost the most boring, torcherous game of the year (next to NC State/South Carolina on opening night). I mean that game was painful. After that, I dropped Ole Miss out of my Top 25 and put them just ahead of Syracuse (go to hell, Greg Paulus). Unless they beat Alabama this weekend, I wouldn't vote Ole Miss for dogcatcher.
The Big Ten - Listed below are the non-conference opponents for each Big Ten school. The majority of these games are played in-succession toward the beginning of the season; and, as you will soon tell, not many of these game pose much of a challenge to any school from a BCS conference. What does this mean? It means that most Big Ten schools have an extra month of scrimmages before starting conference play; and, with most of these schools going 4-0 out of conference, each Big Ten team only needs to win 2 conference games to become bowl eligible. Just think about it: what if you went 2-6 in your conference, but went to a bowl game? While I admit that many BCS conferences intentionally schedule weaker non-conference teams to play in the regular season, most of those BCS schools do so in order to provide a break from the harsh conditions and brutal competition from their inter-conference opponents. These schools also take the time out to schedule a QUALITY non-conference opponent for the very purpose of boosting their strength-of-schedule. While the Big Ten plays several schools from BCS Conferences (14 total), the vast majority of these opponents come from the bottom rungs of their corresponding conference. Example? Sure! Syracuse, led by Duke point guard Greg Paulus. Syracuse sucks so bad that they begged a Caucasian point guard to be their starting QB knowing full well that he hadn't touched a football in 4 years. What's funnier? Syracuse plays Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern (and beat Northwestern, LOL); and Syracuse will be Penn State and Northwestern's only opponent from a BCS Conference outside the Big Ten.
Moral of the (Big Ten) story: Schedule good teams; beat good teams (especially in January); and until that happens, stop complaining about how you're not getting respect.
Navy
USC
Toledo
New Mexico State
Northern Illinois
Fresno State
Wofford
Hawaii
Northern Iowa
Iowa State
Arizona
Arkansas State
Western Michigan
Notre Dame
Eastern Michigan
Delaware State
Akron
Syracuse
Temple
Eastern Illinois
Syracuse
Air Force
California
South Dakota State
Towson
Eastern Michigan
Syracuse
Miami (OH)
Montana State
Central Michigan
Notre Dame
Western Michigan
Toledo
Oregon
Northern Illinois
Notre Dame
Eastern Kentucky
Western Michigan
Akron
Virginia
Missouri
Illinois State
Cincinnati
Fresno State
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